NerdWallet analysis suggests incoming college freshmen face a rising student-loan burden by graduation. The report projects that, for the 2026 graduating cohort, students will borrow an average of $43,000 in federal and private aid to earn a bachelor’s degree—up from $40,000 the year before. The analysis is tied to National Center for Education Statistics data and comes as National College Decision Day highlights affordability concerns for families deciding where to enroll. The reporting also underscores that loan borrowing is rising even as uncertainty about job outcomes and the cost of attendance continues to influence enrollment planning. For student aid offices, the key implication is operational: tighter packaging assumptions, clearer net-price messaging, and more precise counseling on debt accumulation and repayment options—especially for first-time four-year entrants.