A new projection warns that more than a quarter of private nonprofit four-year colleges could be at risk of closure or forced mergers within a decade, driven by enrollment declines and weak financial positions. The forecast by Huron Consulting Group estimates 442 institutions out of about 1,700 private colleges are at risk, with 670,000 students affected. It identifies small, rural schools as especially vulnerable, citing measures such as tuition revenue, assets, debt, and cash on hand. The story follows Sterling College in Vermont, which announced it will close at the end of the semester, offering a rare window into how students experience abrupt disruption when institutions exit. For the sector, the projection signals that consolidation pressure may accelerate beyond selective-market institutions, increasing the need for teach-out planning, enrollment contingency strategy, and board governance readiness.