Three major rating agencies have issued negative or deteriorating outlooks for U.S. higher education in 2026, citing a shrinking pool of prospective students, rising costs, and uncertainty over state and federal support. Fitch on Thursday labeled the sector's outlook "deteriorating," joining Moody’s and S&P in warning of heightened credit pressure across public and nonprofit institutions. Analysts pointed to specific policy headwinds: caps on graduate lending created by recent federal legislation, potential changes to research‑overhead reimbursements, and a decline in international student enrollment after tighter visa scrutiny. The reports forecast continued revenue stress for tuition‑dependent schools and expect more consolidations, program cuts and restructuring across the sector. The ratings firms singled out institutions heavily dependent on tuition from graduate and international students, and public colleges in states facing budget pressures. They warned trustees and chief financial officers to plan for constrained revenue growth, higher borrowing costs and potential rating downgrades.