S&P Global issued a negative 2026 outlook for U.S. nonprofit colleges, saying institutions will face mounting operating pressures from federal policy shifts, enrollment competition and rising costs. The ratings firm singled out small, regional private colleges as particularly vulnerable and forecast higher closure rates and continued margin pressure. Commentators in higher education warn the financial strain is already visible: analysts and commentators predict an uptick in bankruptcies as institutions confront shrinking research reimbursements, tougher federal compliance, and demographic headwinds that have cut into traditional enrollment pipelines.