Federal officials advanced a proposed earnings metric that would force postsecondary programs to demonstrate graduate earnings above comparable peers or risk losing access to Federal Direct Loans. Under the draft rule discussed in the Department of Education’s rulemaking session, undergraduate programs that fail the test in two of three years would lose direct loan eligibility, with potential Title IV consequences if the affected programs represent half of a school's Title IV enrollment or revenue. Regulators said the metric would protect students and taxpayers by steering aid toward programs that yield measurable labor‑market returns. Third Way and other policy voices called it a modest but meaningful accountability step; The HEA Group estimated roughly 2% of associate’s and bachelor’s programs would fail the measure. College leaders and accreditors warned the test could prompt program closures and exacerbate financial strain at tuition‑dependent institutions, urging careful calibration of data, timelines and appeals processes before implementation.