The University of Oregon warned that its decades-long enrollment strategy—heavy reliance on out-of-state first-year students—has cracked, pushing the university toward permanent cost reductions. University leadership told its Board of Trustees that expected fall 2026 domestic nonresident enrollment will land hundreds of students below target and below the institution’s 10-year average for the second consecutive year. The strategy helped Oregon stabilize finances as state appropriations tightened, with nonresident tuition bringing in more than three times net tuition revenue from in-state peers and funding a large share of core spending. With nonresident growth slowing, the university now anticipates fewer nonresidents even as it expects near-record levels of in-state enrollment. The decision matters beyond Oregon: it spotlights how flagships built for national markets may face budget volatility when migration patterns and admissions demand shift simultaneously.