A widening “enrollment volatility” problem is pushing universities to miss targets and plan for deficits tied to the downstream effects of post–Great Recession birth declines, according to announcements from multiple institutions. Syracuse University Chancellor J. Michael Haynie warned that the fall 2026 undergraduate enrollment shortfall carries “real financial consequences,” including a budget deficit. The problem is showing up unevenly across the sector: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center data shows overall postsecondary enrollment rose only 1% in fall 2025, down from a 4% increase the year before. Private four-year institutions saw a 1.6% dip in enrollment. The report points to a structural demographic clock—college-aged student supply shifting after households delayed having children during the Great Recession. It highlights heightened existential risk for small private schools, especially the liberal arts model, as they face fewer alternative revenue streams and tighter capacity to absorb year-to-year enrollment swings.