Universities and colleges are increasingly preparing for enrollment shortfalls, with leaders describing “enrollment volatility” as an operational and financial reality for next term. Syracuse University Chancellor J. Michael Haynie warned that the school missed its undergraduate enrollment target for the next fiscal year, citing “real financial consequences—including a budget deficit.” Reporting shows total U.S. postsecondary enrollment rose just 1% in fall 2025, down from a 4% increase the year before. Private four-year institutions saw a 1.6% decline, while more campuses say they have already missed enrollment targets for fall 2026—before national aggregate data is published. The story connects the near-term shocks to a longer demographic runway: a college-aged population supply “clock” started ticking 18 years ago after Great Recession-era fertility declines. Smaller institutions, including many private liberal arts colleges, face heightened risk because their revenue models have less room to absorb shocks. As campuses announce write-downs, higher education’s leadership challenge is shifting from forecasting to contingency planning—budgeting, staffing, and program strategy—against a backdrop of falling student supply and less predictable demand.