A new report from building intelligence firm Gordian shows college renovation backlog reaching a peak, as institutions manage budget pressure and deferred capital renewal. Deferred capital renewal reached $156 per gross square foot in 2025—an 8% year-over-year increase and nearly double 2007 levels—while spending on existing buildings reached only 73.5% of what’s needed to stop the backlog from growing. Gordian warned that the backlog can create a compounding risk cycle: deferring maintenance raises future costs and operational risks, and capital constraints can push institutions to take on additional debt later. The report also referenced Moody’s assessment of nearly $1 trillion in “hidden liability” in physical capital needs over the next decade for roughly 500 institutions. The data also points to a broader shift away from new construction, with campus growth hitting the lowest levels seen in four decades, while schools “right-size” space for projected population changes. For campus leaders, the immediate impact is planning for accelerated renewal needs, potentially revisiting facilities funding strategies, phasing major projects, and aligning sustainability upgrades with the most urgent risk-driven assets.