The U.S. Department of Education proposed a new rule that would restrict federal student loan access—and in some cases Pell Grants—for college programs whose graduates’ earnings do not meet specified benchmarks. The proposal is structured around an “earnings test” that compares program graduate median earnings to earnings of workers with lower credential baselines. The rule would apply to a wide range of offerings, including short-term certificates and certain graduate pathways, with the risk profile determined by IRS earnings data. The Department is expected to finalize the rule as early as July 1. Industry tracking cited in the coverage suggests nearly 2,000 institutions could have at least one program at risk of failing the test, potentially affecting more than 600,000 students. Higher ed leaders will need to prepare for compliance workflows that tie program-level outcomes to federal eligibility. The proposed change signals a sharper shift toward tying Title IV eligibility to measurable labor-market outcomes, intensifying scrutiny on program design, student support, and employer alignment for both traditional colleges and career-focused providers.