New federal earnings-test guidelines being finalized by the U.S. Education Department could sharply reduce eligibility for federal student aid in visual arts, music, and performance graduate programs. The proposed framework uses alumni earnings to assess whether programs meet a threshold linked to working-adult median pay. According to the reporting, nearly half of graduate arts programs could be penalized, with institutions potentially losing the ability to enroll students using federal loans if they fail the test multiple times within a defined window. Analysts cited expect displacement of enrollment and potential closures. A key shift described is the benchmark for graduate programs: the new approach would calculate alumni earnings four years after graduation and compare them against a higher reference point than earlier models tied to high-school graduate earnings.