A new analysis from the American Federation for Children projects that roughly 92% of the nation’s K-12 students could qualify for scholarship awards under a new federal school choice tax credit program launching next year, but actual participation will depend on state opt-ins and taxpayer uptake. The program, created by last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, allows taxpayers to claim federal dollar-for-dollar credits of up to $1,700 in exchange for donations to scholarship-granting organizations that can award scholarships only in states that participate. Student income eligibility is capped at 300% of local median income, producing eligibility thresholds that vary widely by county. Nineteen states led by Democratic governors have not yet decided whether to participate, and the debate is intensifying between opt-in advocates and opponents including teachers’ unions. The analysis also flags that eligibility ceilings and regulatory details under development by the Trump administration could materially shape how many students end up receiving scholarships. For higher education leaders watching school funding, admissions, and enrollment pipelines, the program signals a potential shift in downstream K-12 enrollment behaviors and family education spending—especially if more states opt in quickly and scholarship awards expand.