The U.S. Department of Education’s proposed rule would tighten federal student aid access for programs deemed to underperform on post-graduation earnings. For undergraduate programs, schools could face restrictions if graduates’ earnings fall below a benchmark tied to workers with only a high school degree; for graduate programs, the benchmark is tied to workers with only a bachelor’s degree. The proposal also creates a pathway to limit Pell Grant eligibility for programs that fail the earnings threshold in specified circumstances. The programs flagged as at risk reportedly span both short-term certificates and degree programs in fields where early-career pay is often lower, including cosmetology, fine and studio arts, music, and certain health-related areas. Sector research cited in the reporting suggests that roughly 2,000 colleges and universities could have at least one program at risk, potentially putting more than 600,000 students into a compliance spotlight. Institutions would have to monitor earnings outcomes using IRS data as the government builds the rule’s accountability mechanism. If finalized on the proposed schedule, institutions with significant reliance on federal aid for lower-earning pathways could face faster operational shifts to program mix, recruitment strategies, and reporting systems.