Provisions of the Republicans’ 2026 legislative package are poised to block federal student loans from degree programs whose graduates earn less than workers with only a high‑school diploma, analysts say. Research from the HEA Group estimates the rule could affect about 2% of U.S. associate and bachelor’s programs and roughly 40,000 students, with arts, religion and certain trade credentials most at risk. The change—known inside higher‑education policy circles as the “do‑no‑harm” provision—goes into force in July and will force programs to document earnings outcomes or lose Title IV eligibility. At the same time, the broader “big, beautiful bill” is accelerating student interest in non‑degree, short‑term career training or “un‑college” alternatives, industry analysts report. Colleges that rely on federal loan access to sustain programs must reassess outcomes reporting, career services, and program mix. Expect heightened scrutiny of program ROI, a potential reallocation of institutional aid, and accelerated growth of stackable credentials and employer‑aligned training.