Federal analysis and higher-education leaders are warning that the new graduate‑lending limits taking effect this July will directly reduce borrowing power for a large share of graduate students. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Consumer Finance Institute found about 28% of recent graduate borrowers would be curtailed by the caps; the analysis also said many of those students lack credit profiles that would permit private loans without a cosigner. The limits, written into last year’s tax-and-spending package and effective July 1, also sunset the Grad PLUS program and cap annual and lifetime borrowing for graduate and professional students. College administrators and enrollment officers are already assessing program-level exposure: doctoral and professional programs (particularly at private nonprofit institutions) show the highest shares of students who currently borrow above the cap. Federal regulators and campus financial-aid offices must still define “professional” programs in regulation, but institutions should expect materially smaller federal borrowing envelopes for many master’s, doctoral, and professional cohorts. Congressional and Department of Education actions this year — including appropriations fights and negotiated rulemaking outcomes — could change implementation, but campuses are being urged to model enrollment and revenue scenarios now. Why it matters: The caps will shift financing risk from the federal government to students, employers, and private lenders and could reduce enrollment in high‑cost programs or force institutions to redesign pricing, aid, and program lengths.