A provision in the Trump administration’s so‑called “big, beautiful bill” and its ‘do no harm’ earnings test could strip federal loan eligibility from certain college programs whose graduates earn less than high‑school peers, putting about 40,000 students at risk, analysts say. Research from HEA Group and reporting by CBS News show around 2% of associate and bachelor’s programs — notably in arts, religion and some trade courses — are most exposed. At the same time, experts and outlets including CNBC warn the law’s new borrowing limits and market pressures are accelerating demand for shorter credentials and “un‑college” pathways. The combined policy and market shifts could reshape program offerings, enrollment patterns, and institutional revenue models.