NACUBO reported preliminary estimates indicating that tuition discounting at private nonprofit colleges will deepen again for the 2025-26 academic year. For first-time undergraduates, the tuition discount rate is projected to reach 57.1%, up from 54.5% the prior year and the highest level in a decade. The report also projects that 90% of first-time undergraduates will receive some institutional aid, with 84% of all undergraduates receiving aid. Despite widespread discounting, average net tuition revenue from undergraduates fell 1.9% after inflation in 2024-25, continuing a pressure pattern that finance leaders have been trying to manage. NACUBO linked the strain to a narrowing pipeline of high school graduates and noted that while colleges are emphasizing retention and graduation to stabilize revenue, retention alone may not be enough to offset losses at tuition-dependent institutions. Because the study is based on a survey of 258 private nonprofit institutions, the next step for campus leaders will be forecasting net tuition and aid packaging under the updated discount assumptions and verifying whether retention gains can close the gap.