Department of Education negotiators reached consensus on an earnings-based accountability test that would deny Federal Direct Loans to postsecondary programs whose graduates earn no more, on average, than adults with a high-school diploma. Programs failing the metric in two of three years would lose direct loan eligibility and potentially Pell access, triggering institutional consequences. Industry analysis suggests the rule would affect a modest share of programs—about 2% of associate’s and bachelor’s programs per one research firm—but the downstream impact could be larger if affected programs represent large portions of an institution’s Title IV enrollment or revenue. The rule would initiate warning periods, loss of eligibility and potential institution-wide sanctions under a multi‑year timeline. Colleges must prepare compliance strategies, enhance career-placement reporting, and consider curricular adjustments as regulators move to tie federal aid to measurable postgraduation earnings.