Two independent analyses released this week flagged a looming structural shortfall in the Pell Grant program after Congress provided one‑time funding in July. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects a 10‑year gap of $61 billion to $97 billion driven by expansion into short‑term workforce programs and rising program costs. CRFB warned the $10.5 billion emergency appropriation in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act merely delays a fiscal crunch. A separate CRFB notice and budgetary watchdog analyses echoed the projection that Workforce Pell —the new eligibility for very short programs—could add several billion dollars to annual costs depending on take‑up. Analysts noted policy changes that broaden eligibility historically yield enrollment above initial estimates, increasing long‑term liabilities. Higher education finance officers and state budget offices are already recalculating forecasts for aid flows to community colleges and certificate providers. Policymakers now face a narrow window to shore up Pell’s reserves or adjust eligibility, program design, or accountability rules. For campuses, the practical implication is uncertainty in federal grant volumes and a heightened risk that program expansion will trigger future cuts or new compliance requirements affecting institutional budgeting and student affordability.