Analysts warn the Pell Grant program faces a structural funding gap that could reach tens of billions over the next decade after Congress temporarily infused $10.5 billion. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates a 10-year shortfall as high as $97 billion, and CRFB projects annual deficits of $6–$11 billion without policy changes. Lawmakers expanded eligibility for short-term Workforce Pell as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act; budget analysts say that expansion and other policy choices have increased long-term costs. CRFB and other budget watchdogs are urging lawmakers to identify sustainable revenue sources or change program rules to avoid repeated reserve depletion. Colleges and financial aid officers should expect renewed federal negotiation over eligibility, accountability and program design; institutions that serve large Pell populations may face more uncertainty about student aid availability in planning cycles.
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