The U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. Army soldier tied to bets on Polymarket around the timing of a raid on Nicolas Maduro, intensifying scrutiny of insider-linked trading in prediction markets. In parallel, Kalshi fined and suspended federal candidates for insider trading on its platform, and both major platforms rolled out additional restrictions aimed at reducing political and employment-linked trading. The reporting also highlights an academic defense of insider participation from Robin Hanson, a George Mason University economist and long-time theory builder for prediction markets. Hanson argues insider trading can improve price accuracy for decision-making, while regulators and policymakers increasingly view it as akin to illegal conduct. For universities and policy centers, the episode underscores a growing compliance and ethics agenda for emerging market-like platforms—especially as campuses experiment with analytics, forecasting tools, and AI systems that blur the line between “data” and “trading.”