A new projection warns that more than a quarter of private nonprofit colleges are at risk of closing or merging within the next decade, intensifying concerns about small, rural institution viability. Huron Consulting Group estimates that 442 of about 1,700 private colleges with 670,000 students are at high risk. The coverage uses Sterling College in Vermont as a human-scale example, noting that the college will close at the end of the current semester. The report highlights how enrollment trends, tuition revenue, assets, debt, and cash on hand interact to produce an uneven survival landscape. For the sector, the news adds urgency to merger planning, student teach-out capacity, and contingency financing—especially for schools with limited operating buffers and constrained recruitment geographies.