A new projection estimates that more than a quarter of U.S. private nonprofit four-year colleges are at risk of closing or merging within the next decade, setting up major disruption for students and communities. The report cites Huron Consulting Group’s forecast that 442 of roughly 1,700 private nonprofit four-year colleges—serving about 670,000 students—are at high risk. More than 120 are at the very highest risk tier, with many small and rural institutions exposed to enrollment and revenue strain. A case example is Sterling College in Vermont, which announced it will close at the end of the semester, illustrating the human impact behind the numbers for students like LillyAnne Keeley. The forecast frames the driver as a supply-and-demand mismatch after long declines in college-going among Americans, a pressure that has been intensified by financial fragility at smaller institutions.