A UCLA researcher said his long-held theory about preventing school shootings was wrong after new evidence showed two diverging trends: fewer students reporting weapon-related behavior in California over two decades, but a rise in national K-12 shooting incidents. Ron Avi Astor, a professor of education at the University of California, Los Angeles, told fellow researchers at the American Educational Research Association (AERA) annual meeting in April that “we were wrong.” His earlier policy guidance leaned on improving school climate and reducing bullying through approaches such as social-emotional learning, restorative justice, trauma-informed care, and counseling. In his AERA presentation, Astor showed California Healthy Kids Survey data where indicators declined, alongside the K-12 School Shooting Database showing increasing incidents nationwide. He later described a “complete change” in thinking after stepping back and reviewing the evidence. The episode underscores a high-stakes gap between behavioral risk indicators and incident counts, with direct implications for how universities, funders, and policymakers evaluate school-safety interventions.