S&P Global issued a negative outlook for U.S. nonprofit colleges for 2026, citing weaker operating margins, enrollment competition, federal policy shifts and rising costs. Analysts warned small, regional private colleges with limited financial flexibility remain the most vulnerable and predicted a continuation of consolidation and closures. Commentators and academics are now publicly forecasting an uptick in university bankruptcies if enrollment declines, loan-limit rules and research funding cuts persist. Several think pieces and analyses argue that sustained policy shocks and demographic pressures could push more institutions toward restructuring or closure. Key actors: S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s, independent higher-education analysts and university finance officers.