A new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper reports that COVID-era remote K-12 instruction is associated with reduced college-going outcomes. The study links fully virtual K-12 instruction in 2020–21 with declines in FAFSA submission rates and first-year enrollment. According to the report, FAFSA submissions dropped by 4.2 percentage points and first-year college enrollment fell by 2.5 percentage points when schools switched to online instruction. The paper also finds declines in ACT test-taking participation and minimal rebound effects after in-person reopening. Researchers attribute part of the negative impact to weaker school-based guidance—particularly for students in higher-poverty schools and those with fewer external supports—suggesting that counseling, reminders, and admissions process outreach may have been less effective during remote transitions.
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