Student attrition is quietly compounding into major financial pressure, but a key failure mode remains: many institutions detect risk after students have already decided to leave. A new analysis argues that exit surveys and dashboards often miss the timing and triggers that set students on a path to dropout or stop-out. The piece cites Genio’s “The Churning Point” report estimating attrition costs higher education $10.72 billion annually, with first-year students responsible for 45% of losses. It also points to National Student Clearinghouse figures suggesting first-year dollars at risk can be substantial, while WICHE forecasts a 13% decline in high school graduates by 2041. Critically, the article says early alert systems are often tuned to academic triggers, even though “Potential Completers” can look disengaged administratively rather than academically and may re-enroll at nearly twice the rate of other stopouts. The implication for campus leaders is to redesign predictive models and interventions around the signals that actually precede departure.