A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper finds that rapid expansion of Chinese higher education in the 2000s fueled demand for U.S. master’s programs and that Chinese graduate enrollment financed program growth that also increased access for domestic students. The authors—researchers at UC San Diego and Stanford—matched Chinese admissions data with U.S. SEVIS records to track flows of students and tuition impacts. The paper argues Chinese demand supported the creation and scale of many U.S. graduate programs, and that tuition revenue from international students subsidized slots that domestic students later filled. That dynamic runs against narratives that foreign students displace Americans and instead frames international enrollment as an economic lever for program expansion. Findings arrive amid heightened federal scrutiny of international students and proposals to restrict visas for some nationalities; international educators warn that policy shifts could erode the revenue model that sustains many graduate programs and downstream undergraduate opportunities. Universities, state higher‑ed leaders and migration scholars say the study should inform visa policy debates by clarifying how global student mobility affects domestic enrollment, research capacity and local economies.
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