New federal enrollment data analyzed by Class Action shows a stark redistribution of underrepresented minority freshmen after the Supreme Court barred race‑conscious admissions. Among the 50 most selective institutions, Black first‑year enrollment fell about 27% year‑over‑year and Hispanic freshmen declined roughly 10%; Ivy‑plus schools registered the steepest drops. The data also show gains elsewhere: many public flagship universities and less selective private colleges recorded substantial increases in Black and Hispanic first‑year students, producing a cascade effect as higher‑achieving students of color who previously enrolled at elite campuses instead matriculated at other institutions. The shifting patterns signal redistributions of access across the sector and could change yield, completion, and diversity strategies at many colleges.
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