A working paper from Brown University’s Annenberg Institute suggests some marginal transfer students—those admitted just above eligibility cutoffs—could see worse long-run earnings than students who are rejected but attempt other pathways. Researchers analyzed outcomes for transfer students in Texas and found differences emerge several years after transfer. For academically marginal transfer students moving from two-year colleges to four-year institutions, earnings were about $7,000 lower per year than students who applied to transfer but were rejected. Similar comparisons for transfers into flagship universities from other four-year colleges also showed lower earnings for marginally admitted students. Economics professor Lois Miller, a co-author quoted in the paper, said the negative results apply to students near cutoffs (often around a 2.0 GPA) and does not necessarily reflect outcomes for students with stronger academic preparation. The findings underscore the importance of advising and matching for transfer applicants.